🚀 go-pugleaf

In comp.sys.ibm.pc.games.strategic johns <john...@moscow.com> wrote:
> Gaming and Multi-media are driving the PC
> market. Without that, the only thing left is
> business apps and web browsing, and no
> amount of that is going to sustain an industry
> that has already been outsourced, and over
> sold to the point that companies are sticking
> with cheap upgrades and W2K. They are
> not willing to pay and pay and pay for no
> further advantage. To them, the only good
> PC starts at less than $400, and lasts 5
> years. XP is the last time they will spend
> 1 cent for anything more, and that is already
> bought.

First, you forgot porn as a driving force of PC technology.

Second, I see plenty more clueless businesses (and consumers) lining up to 
(re)buy the latest "version" of software, such as AV scanners, MS Office, 
etc.  Really now, do the vast majority of business or home users even need 
HALF the features found in Word95, much less all the bloat that's been 
piled on ever since?  Yet folks will eagerly go and buy the latest version 
of Office - whether they need it or not.

> But, the average office worker would like
> a system that is entertaining without being
> distracting ... music ... cable news ...
> dvd-training movies ... cableTV ...  and that
> should be easily upgradable to home-office
> systems that are fully entertaining ... cableTV
> instead of Adelphia ... movies ... and games
> that are really good.

Want music?  There's this thing called a "radio".  Music isn't a necessity 
for the office.

Games, Movies, TV during work hours?  Are you crazy?  Most people don't 
even play games at all on their PC much less on their work PC...

Home users are another matter, but I doubt you're going to convince very 
many company IT managers that, yes, their employees really DO need a 
streaming video service with the latest movies, in HD and 5.1 surround 
sound, along with access to the latest in 3d games...

> If the PC industry undermines any of that, they
> are just screwing themselves. For every $$ that
> Microsoft makes on a console game, they
> lose that money in retail PC sales plus a
> whole lot more. One console game translates
> into 20 cheap Office PCs that will stick with
> older OSes and apps. And that can only get
> worse over the years. I see Proof of that every
> day. The Feds are using crap desktops, and
> W2K is the OS of choice ... for years now.
> And they have reduced their on-site force
> to nothing.

At least with businesses, Microsoft can try to push them onto newer 
versions of the OS.  Win2k is no longer supported by Microsoft, unless 
your company is explicitly PAYING for support.  XP is expected to follow 
pretty quickly.

Home users won't care.  They'll use whatever their computer has until they 
run it into the ground.  Then they'll buy a new computer which will come 
with the latest OS Microsoft wants them to use, and the cycle continues.  
You have noticed, for instance, that as soon as Vista hit the shelves, ALL 
the stores stopped selling PCs with XP on them, right?  At best, you could 
find a XP system on clearance simply because the store wanted to get rid 
of it ASAP.  It doesn't matter if you don't want Vista now because short 
of building your own, you CAN'T AVOID IT.

As for Microsoft and the gaming industry, again, I think Microsoft wants 
to move everyone onto their console and OFF the PC as quickly as 
possible.  The PC is an open platform and it's too late to change that.  
However, the console industry gives the hardware companies complete 
control over the third party developers.  Over on the PC side, the best 
Microsoft can hope for is making everyone buy a copy of Vista.  And as you 
point out, most people will stick with that computer/OS for years and 
years and years.  That's not a dependable revenue stream.  Mark my words, 
we will see Microsoft starting to move towards a subscription based model, 
just like the one your AV program uses!

> So, add to that trend, the Console companies
> undermining the Home PC market, and you
> have an industry in trouble. Worse, you have
> an industry that is going to lose its reputation
> with young kids who will grow up on hand
> -helds and dinky web toys ... that will become
> the web browsers, and emailers of choice ..
> and even the game consoles for those cheap
> stupid games that have always been out there.

Naw, PCs have nothing to fear from consoles.  If anything, consoles will 
HELP the PC market.  You're never going to see a console REPLACE the PC 
for one simple reason: Are you seriously going to let your kid type his 
homework up on your 60" TV in the living room?  I don't think so!

There will always be a "PC" though it may no longer resemble the large 
beige box under your desk.  Many people have moved to laptops now because 
they're powerful enough for home use, with the possible exception of high 
end gaming.  They're relatively inexpensive, and they're portable.

Game consoles, meanwhile, may have many of the same components as your PC, 
but they're really just fancy appliances.  While you CAN do some of the 
same non-game functions a PC can do on a console, most people aren't going 
to be satisfied with the reduction in power, features or convience that 
even a cheap PC allows.

> I predict that this silly nonsense will continue
> until there is a total collapse of the industy,
> and all social and commercial support will
> disappear.  High level PC gaming is the only
> way Vista will be accepted and gain foothold
> in schools, industry, and government. It has
> to support the kids who will grow up on it,
> and take it to work in the future.

Oh come off it.  At worst, the big industry game developers will leave the 
PC entirely and stick to consoles.  PC gaming won't be dead.  As we've 
seen in recent years, there's a fast growing industry of indie developers 
and publishers who are stepping in to fill the gaps left by the receding 
so-called "big game" industry.  If anything, this is PC gaming returning 
to its roots.  Do you think the original PC launched with DOS and the 
latest game from EA?  Hah!  It took years for the first big companies to 
start to emerge - and many of them didn't make it.  EA is perhaps the 
biggest and the oldest, but they've long since left their roots as a 
couple of guys in a garage far far behind them.

In the 90s, PC gaming got a big boost from DOOM, a shareware game from a 
(then) little known company called iD.  It could be argued that a game 
like DOOM could have only come from a shareware/garage company because 
none of the big companies would take a risk on something new.  They're too 
busy cranking out the latest lukewarm rehash of their past titles.  
Personally, I look forward to having the big companies leave the PC.  
It'll put us that much closer to having 'the next big shakeup' type game 
appear from the garage developers.

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